AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – December 1, 2015 Forecast
The AUD/USD surged on Tuesday as the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2 percent, as expected. Governor Glenn Stevens maintained that the RBA is in data-dependent mode going forward, repeating the now-familiar refrain that “the outlook for inflation may afford scope for further easing… should that be appropriate.”
The key point in the statement was when Stevens noted that “the pace of growth in dwelling prices has moderated” in the boom market of Sydney and Melbourne while remaining subdued elsewhere. He added that “supervisory measures are helping to contain risks that may arise from the housing market”.
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Technically, the main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The market began its recovery on Monday when it tested a short-term retracement zone.
Tuesday’s surge through the previous main top at .7282 helped make .7169 a new main bottom.
Based on the current price at .7283. Its nearest support is a steep uptrending angle at .7249. Additional support angles come in at .7209, .7183 and .7176. The latter is the last potential support angle before the .7169 main bottom.
If the upside momentum continues then look for buyers to go after a longer-term uptrending angle at .7315. Crossing to the strong side of this angle will put the AUD/USD in an extremely strong position. This could lead to an eventual test of the major 50% level at .7379.
Watch the price action and read the order flow at .7282 the rest of the session. Trader reaction to this level will tell us whether the move through this level earlier in the session was fueled by real buying or buy stops.