AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – November 16, 2015 Forecast
The AUD/USD finished slightly lower on Friday, but higher for the week. Last week’s price action was driven by technically oversold conditions and a stronger than expected Australian labor report, which may have put on hold a December interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
This week, traders will have to the opportunity to react to the latest U.S. consumer inflation data on Monday and the Fed minutes on Wednesday. The Fed minutes are likely to highlight the divergences between the hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve and the dovish Reserve Bank. This could help push the Forex pair lower later in the week.
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Technically, the main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The short-term range is .7223 to .7015. Its retracement zone is .7119 to .7143. This zone is currently providing resistance.
Additional resistance is being provided by a pair of downtrending angles at .7131 and .7143.
On the downside, the nearest support is an uptrending angle at .7095. If a short-term range develops between .7015 and .7158 then its pivot at .7086 may become important support. If it fails then look for a possible break into the next uptrending angle at .7055.
Based on Friday’s close at .7123, the direction of the market today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at .7119.
A sustained move under .7119 will indicate the presence of sellers with potential targets at .7095, .7086 and .7055.
A sustained move over .7119 will signal the presence of buyers. If a rally does start to develop then it is likely to be labored because of potential resistance at .7131 and a price cluster at .7143. The rally could accelerate over .7143 with the next target a downtrending angle at .7183.
Watch the price action and read the order flow at .7119 today. Trader reaction to this number will tell us if the bulls or the bears are in control.