AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – November 23, 2015 Forecast
After closing at its highest level since October 26 to end the week, the AUD/USD opened lower on Monday and was met with immediate selling pressure. All of this was taking place while the market was in a major retracement zone. This suggests that technical factors are controlling the trade today.
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. It turned up last week when the Forex pair crossed the swing top at .7158. The new swing bottom is .7068. A trade through that level will turn the main trend to down.
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The main range is .7381 to .7015. Its retracement zone is .7198 to .7241. Last Friday, the Aussie tested the upper or Fibonacci level when it rallied to .7249, but closed inside the zone. Earlier today, it opened inside the zone and broke through the lower or 50% level. The early weakness helped make .7249 a new minor top.
Based on the current price at .7180, the nearest resistance is an uptrending angle at .7195 and the main 50% level at .7198. Crossing to the strong side of .7198 will indicate that buyers have returned. This will make .7231, .7241 and .7249 potential upside targets.
A sustained move under .7195 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is a minor 50% level at .7158. Another 50% level comes in at .7152. This is followed by an uptrending angle at .7105. This is the angle that stopped the price slide on November 18 at .7068.
The early price action has established a range between the main 50% level at .7198 and a minor 50% level at .7158. Look for a bullish tone to develop on a sustained move over .7198 and a bearish tone on a sustained move under .7158. Watch for a choppy, two-sided trade if traders hold the AUD/USD between .7158 and .7198.