Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Avoids Sub-30 Despite a Seventh BTC Loss
Key Insights:
- Bitcoin (BTC) saw red for a seventh consecutive day, with an afternoon sell-off sending BTC into negative territory.
- The downside came despite the NASDAQ 100 ending the day in positive territory, with jitters over Fed monetary policy and the US economy weighing.
- The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index inched up from 30/100 to 31/100 this morning. The upside came despite BTC falling for a seventh consecutive session.
On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.76%. Following a 0.33% decline from Wednesday, Bitcoin ended the day at $22,652. The bearish session saw BTC extend its losing streak to seven sessions. BTC also ended the day at sub-$23,000 for the third session in a row.
A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise to a high of $23,229 before hitting reverse. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $23,395, BTC slid to a late low of $22,418 before making a move.
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BTC briefly fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $22,475 before a late partial recovery to $22,652.
Uncertainty over the US economic outlook and Fed monetary policy left BTC on the back foot. Weak US labor market numbers on Thursday weighed ahead of today’s all-important nonfarm payroll and wage growth figures.
Today’s stats will likely decide the magnitude of the Fed’s September rate hike, with riskier assets favoring a 50-basis point hike.
On Thursday, the NASDAQ 100 rose by 0.41%, while the Dow (-0.26%) and the S&P500 (-0.08%) saw red.
This morning, the NASDAQ 100 Mini was up 59 points.
Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Rose to 31/100 Despite BTC Pullback
Today, the Fear & Greed Index increased from 30/100 to 31/100. Following an unexpected increase to 34/100 on Wednesday, another bitcoin decline failed to weigh on investor sentiment.
The Index movements suggest some optimism surrounding a crypto market that remains cautious over the Fed and the US Economic outlook.
For the bitcoin bulls, the Index needs to move back towards 40/100 and the neutral zone to deliver BTC support.
On July 30, the Index had stood at 42/100 to briefly border the neutral zone that starts at 46/100.
Avoiding a return to sub-30/100 remains BTC positive, with an Index move through to 46/100 likely to bring $30,000 into view.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action
At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.11% to $22,649. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $22,591 before rising to a high of $22,683.
Technical Indicators
BTC needs to move through the $22,764 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $23,116 and the Thursday high of $23,229.
BTC would need a bullish afternoon session to support a return to $23,000.
An extended rally would test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $23,575 and resistance at $24,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $24,388.
Failure to move through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $22,305 into play.
In the event of an extended sell-off, BTC would likely test the Second Major Support Level at $21,956 before any recovery.
The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $21,144.
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat above the 200-day EMA, currently at $22,535.
The 50-day narrowed to the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA closing in on the 200-day EMA, the signals were negative for BTC.
A fall through the 200-day EMA, currently at $22,535, would bring S1 into play. However, moving back through the 100-day EMA, currently at $22,728, would bring the Major Resistance Levels and the 50-day EMA ($23,050) into play.
Looking at the trends, BTC would need a move through the July high of $24,619 and $25,000 to target the June high of $31,956. A bullish cross of the 100-day EMA through the 200-day EMA would support a run at the June high.
From $31,200, BTC should have a clear run at the May high of $40,004. BTC needs to hold above the 50-day EMA to support the near-term bullish trend.
For the bears, the June 18 low of $17,601 would be the next target, with a fall through the July low of $18,768 likely to test investor resilience.