Comex Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – May 25, 2017 Forecast
August Comex Gold futures are holding steady on Thursday as investors continue to digest the impact of the Fed Meeting Minutes and the potential political fallout from issues involving President Trump.
The Fed minutes may actually be putting a lid on gold prices. Although the central bank suggested it would take a more cautious approach to interest rate increases, traders have priced in an 83 percent chance of a rate hike at the June FOMC meeting.
Your capital is at risk
President Trump’s problems may be providing support that could linger until next week when former FBI Director James Comey gives his testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee. He could either make or break the case against Trump on possible obstruction of justice.
Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. Although the market has rallied since the $1217.80 main bottom on May 9, momentum hasn’t shifted to the upside because of the resistance at $1259.10 to $1268.80.
Additionally, the closing price reversal top at $1268.30 from May 18 is a strong indication that the selling is greater than the buying at current price levels.
The new short-term range is $1217.80 to $1268.30. If there is a near-term break then its retracement zone at $1243.10 to $1237.10 will become the primary downside target.
Forecast
Based on the current price at $1261.20 and the earlier price action, the direction of the gold market the rest of the session will be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at $1259.10.
A sustained move over $1259.10 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a labored rally into $1265.10, $1268.80 and $1272.30.
The trigger point for a breakout to the upside is $1272.30. This is also the trigger point for a move into the next downtrending angle at $1286.30.
A sustained move under $1259.10 will signal the presence of sellers. The daily chart is wide open to the downside with a price cluster at $1244.30, $1243.10 and $1241.80 the next major downside target.
Watch the price action and read the order flow at $1259.10 all session. Trader reaction to this 50% level will set the direction for the day.