Comex High Grade Copper Price Futures (HG) Technical Analysis – Within Striking Distance of 5-Year High at $3.3490
May Comex High Grade Copper futures finished higher last week, driven by a weaker U.S. Dollar, which hit a three-year low against a basket of currencies. Foreign demand for dollar-denominated copper tends to increase when the Greenback is under pressure.
Weekly Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. A trade through $3.3335 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. This could lead to a test of the June 5, 2013 main top at $3.3490. This is the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.
Your capital is at risk
A trade through $3.0465 will change the main trend to down. This is followed by another main bottom at $2.9585.
Weekly Technical Forecast
Based on last week’s close at $3.2685, the direction of the copper market this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to last week’s high at $3.2905.
If buyers take out $3.2905 with conviction, the momentum generated by the move could trigger a surge into $3.3335 then $3.3490. The latter is the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside, but rising volume will help with the move.
The arrival of sellers could stop the market from taking out $3.2905. Or, buyers could take out $3.2905 then sellers could stop the move and drive the market back under $3.2685. In this case, we could see the formation of a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.
If sellers win the battle this week then we could see a break into the short-term 50% level at $3.1685. If the selling increases under this level then look for the break to extend into $3.1460 to $3.1020.