Copper Fundamental Forecast – May 4, 2016
Copper dipped 33 points to trade at 2.234 after Chinese data printed lower than expected. China’s April official manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 50.1 from 50.2 in March, signaling a modest weakening of momentum for the world’s second-largest economy despite easy-credit policies and a stronger real-estate market.
Copper market participants had been awaiting the latest data out of China for further clues into the health of its economy. China is the world’s major copper consumer; therefore, its economic health is important to copper prices. Unfortunately, the latest reading on China’s factory activity, for April, was disappointing. China’s April official manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 50.1 in April from 50.2 in March, according to the report from the National Bureau of Statistics on Sunday.
Your capital is at risk
The decline was modest, but it puts the reading very close to contraction territory. Any number below 50 signals contraction. Also, the PMI missed analysts’ expectations. Analysts polled by The Wall Street Journal were expecting a reading of 50.4. Prior to March’s reading, the index fell for seven straight months. China’s official non-manufacturing PMI, also released Sunday, fell to 53.5 from 53.8 in March.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Wednesday, May 4, 2016
Cur. | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | |||
Japan – Constitution Day | |||||||
AUD | Building Approvals (MoM) (Mar) | -3.0% | 3.1% | ||||
CNY | Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | 49.9 | 49.7 | ||||
AUD | Interest Rate Decision (May) | 2.00% | 2.00% | ||||
GBP | Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | 51.2 | 51.0 |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country Auction
May 04 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction
May 04 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Apr 2021 Bobl
May 04 11:30 UK Gbp 2.75bn 1.5% 2021 Gilt
May 04 11:50 France Holds bond auction
May 04 17:20 Sweden Details of bond auction on May 11
May 05 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction
May 05 11:00 Austria Holds bond auction
May 05 11:30 UK Gbp 2.5bn 1.5% 2026 Gilt
May 09 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction
May 09 N/A Ireland Details of bond auction on May 12
May 10 11:30 Germany Holds I/L bond auction
May 11 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
May 11 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2018 Schatz
May 12 11:10 Italy Holds bond auction
May 12 17:20 Sweden Details of I/L auction on May 19
May 12 N/A Ireland Holds bond auction