Crude Oil & Brent Oil Monthly Fundamental Forecast October 2014
Crude Oil was weak most of the month on lower demand and high production with a global glut. The commodity closed at 91.16 after climbing back above the $94 level and then crashing as the markets closed for the month. Brent Oil dipped from over $100 to close at 94.98 near its weakest point of the month as OPEC production levels continued to grow and demand weakened. Traders paid little attention to the geopolitical situation and more towards the economic recovery of the US. This would normally increase demand, but production in the US continues to soar to record highs as shale facilities produced record levels of oil. Oil is expected to trade in a range as OPEC will not meet to review production quotas until November.
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WTI plummeted USD 3.41 a barrel as the month ended and Brent tumbled $2.53 on the 30th owing to a supply glut and a pick-up in the dollar, which is sitting at a six-year high against the yen and a two-year high against the euro.
After rising for four months, the Conference Board index — a key barometer of US consumer confidence — fell to 86.0 in September from 93.4 in August on mounting concerns about the jobs market. Consumer spending is a key growth driver in the world’s biggest economy and any dip in the index indicates weak demand. But analysts said other economic indicators remain strong.
The drastic drop of the oil prices has coincided with the highest bullish trend by the US dollar, vis a vis the basket of hard currencies, since four years ago, and the highest against the euro since two years ago.
Noticeable rise of supplies from the Middle East, Africa and the United States contributed to the bearish trend of the crude prices; a factor that has also alleviated fears with respect of forecast disruption of the oil supplies from these regions, currently gripped with dramatic political and military conflicts.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
WEEKLY RELEASES
This Week in Petroleum
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Heating Oil & Propane Update
Weekly Coal Production
Weekly NYMEX Coal Futures
Coal News & Markets
Natural Gas Weekly Update
Cur. Event
Wednesday, October 1
CNY Manufacturing PMI
EUR German Manufacturing PMI
GBP Manufacturing PMI
USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
Thursday, October 2
GBP Construction PMI
EUR Interest Rate Decision
Friday, October 3
GBP Services PMI
USD Nonfarm Payrolls
USD Unemployment Rate
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Monday, October 6
CAD Ivey PMI
Tuesday, October 7
GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM)
Thursday, October 9
GBP Interest Rate Decision
Friday, October 10
CAD Employment Change
Monday, October 13
CNY Trade Balance
Tuesday, October 14
EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Wednesday, October 15
CNY CPI (YoY)
GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus
Thursday, October 16
12:00 EUR CPI (YoY)
Friday, October 17
15:30 CAD Core CPI (MoM)
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Oct 01 11:03 Sweden Bond auction
Oct 01 11:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Aug 2024 Bund auction
Oct 01 11:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Gilt
Oct 02 10:30 Spain Bono/Obligacion auction
Oct 02 17:00 US Announces details of 3/10Y Note