Crude Oil Forecast November 23, 2015, Technical Analysis
The light sweet crude market fell initially during the course of the session on Friday, testing the $40 level yet again. We have seen this for the last 3 sessions, as the markets continue to try to break down below that level. Now that we have formed a hammer yet again, it appears that the market could very well bounce from here. A bounce from here should continue to attract sellers. We believe that there is a massive amount of resistance somewhere near the $45 level, so even if we bounce all the way up there, we think it is more than likely that we will see quite a bit of resistance. Ultimately, we do think that the market sells at higher levels, and then falls right back down to the $40 handle. With this, we have no interest in buying. We simply wait to see whether or not we can sell below the bottom of the hammer, or sell at higher levels as it represents “value” in the US dollar.
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Brent markets had a positive session on Friday, and as a result it looks like we could bounce from here. After all, we did form a bit of a hammer for the weekly candle, but at this point in time we believe that the sellers will reenter the market and push the value of Brent lower. With this, we are simply waiting to see some type of rally that we can take advantage of, as the $48 level above is massively resistive.
We believe that the market will eventually break down below the bottom of the market from a few sessions ago, and then reach down towards the $40 handle. The US dollar continues to work against the value of the commodity markets, and as a result we feel that the market continues to see bearish pressure overall. In fact, it is not until we start to break down in the US Dollar Index that we would consider buying this market, as oil has simply been far too soft for far too long to be involved in to the upside