Crude Oil Forecast October 13, 2014, Technical Analysis

Light Sweet Crude

Light sweet crude market gapped lower at the open on Friday, but found enough support in the region of $84 to form a positive candle after bouncing. Because of this, it looks as if the market is going to try to give a bit of a chance for the buyers to take control in the short-term, but most certainly we feel that this market is very negative, and there is a massive amount of resistance closer to the $90 handle. Quite frankly, we feel that the market probably won’t even get that high in order to test that area, and we are willing to start selling at the first signs of significant resistance or trouble.

The market could very easily go down to the $80 handle, which of course is our longer-term target. It is a nice large psychologically significant number, so to see buyers enter the market in that area would not be too surprising to us.

Brent

The Brent market initially gapped lower during the day on Friday, but found the $88 level to be supportive enough to keep the market afloat. Because of that, the market looks as if it is ready to bounce, and that of course would be a huge surprise, considering that the market has certainly been oversold recently. On top of that, the $80 level is significant on the longer-term charts, so we feel that the market will probably bounce from little bit here, and then turn things back around as we sell off.

We believe that the market will more than likely go to the $85 level, perhaps over the next several weeks. We are oversold at this point though, so we more than likely would run out of a bit of the downward momentum in the short-term. It’s difficult to imagine this market doing so, but we could go as high as $97 before we see any significant reason to start buying this market. In fact, we believe that this market will continue to be a “sell on the rallies” type of situation.