E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – May 2, 2016 Forecast
June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures is trading steady to slightly better shortly before the cash market opening. The market is trying to rebound after a successful test of a major, long-term uptrending angle on Friday.
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The market is currently down 9 sessions from the 4584.50 main top. This puts it in the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom. This chart pattern won’t change the trend, but it could lead to a 2 to 3 day short-covering rally.
Your capital is at risk
The main range is 4171.75 to 4584.50. Its retracement zone is 4378.25 to 4329.50. This zone was straddled on Friday and the market is currently trying to establish support on its lower, or Fibonacci level at 4329.50.
The short-term range is 4584.50 to 4296.75. Its retracement zone at 4440.75 to 4474.50 is the primary upside target today.
Based on Friday’s close at 4331.50 and the earlier price action, the direction of the index today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major Fib level at 4329.50.
A sustained move over 4329.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a rally into the major 50% level at 4378.25.
The 50% level at 4378.25 is the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next major target a price cluster formed by a downtrending angle at 4440.50 and a 50% level at 4440.75. This is the best upside target. The next target is the short-term Fib level at 4474.50.
A sustained move over 4329.50 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is a long-term uptrending angle at 4307.75. The next is a steep downtrending angle at 4296.50.
Crossing to the weak side of 4296.50 will put the index in an extremely bearish position. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with 4226.00 the next major target.
Look for an upside bias to develop over 4329.50 and a downside bias under this figure. Make sure the volume is strong if playing for a breakout or a breakdown. Otherwise, you could get chopped up playing both sides of this level.