E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – February 14, 2018 Forecast
March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are called lower based on the pre-market trade. The catalyst behind the selling pressure is the stronger-than-expected U.S. consumer price index report which raised fears about inflation and higher interest rates.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.5 percent last month against projections of a 0.3 percent increase. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the index was up 0.3 percent against estimates of 0.2 percent.
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Headline CPI rose 2.1 percent on an annualized basis against expectations of 1.9 percent. Core CPI increased 1.8 percent versus estimates of 1.7 percent.
The Labor Department indicated that price pressures were “broad-based,” with rises in gasoline, shelter, apparel, medical care and food.
Daily Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 2529.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.
The minor trend is also down. Taking out 2726.75 will change the minor trend to up.
The price action is currently being influenced by a series of retracement levels.
The short-term range is 2529.00 to 2726.75. Its retracement zone at 2627.50 to 2651.50 is currently being tested.
The intermediate range is 2529.00 to 2726.75. Its retracement zone at 2628.00 to 2604.50 is acting like support.
The main range is 2878.50 to 2529.00. Its retracement zone at 2703.75 to 2745.00 is the primary upside target and resistance.
Daily Technical Forecast
Based on the early price action, the direction of the index today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% levels at 2627.50 and 2628.00.
A sustained move under 2627.50 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could drive the index into the Fibonacci level at 2604.50. This level is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into 2530.25 then 2529.00.
A sustained move over 2628.00 will signal the presence of buyers. The buying will get stronger if traders can overcome 2651.50. This could trigger a surge into a downtrending Gann angle at 2686.50. We could see a technical bounce on the first test of this angle, but it is also the trigger point for an acceleration into 2703.75.