E-mini S&P Sellers Could Be Gunning for 4137.50 – 4129.00
March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading lower on Tuesday after posting volatile swings earlier in the session. Its low was reached in the overnight session as fears over a war in Europe deepened amid escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions.
At 18:39 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4287.50, down 56.00 or -1.29%. The S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) is at $427.00, down $7.23 or -1.67%.
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The catalyst behind the moves was the news that Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine and ordered troops to those regions, inviting threats of fresh Western sanctions.
In economic news, the IHS Markit manufacturing PMI rose to 52.5 in February from 50.5. The IHS Markit services PMI jumped to 56 in February from 51.1 the month prior.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 4212.75 will reaffirm the downtrend. A move through 4484.50 will change the main trend to up.
The long-term retracement zone at 4266.00 to 4137.50 is the primary downside target. It was tested earlier today at 4250.00.
On the upside, the resistance zone is 4327.75 to 4419.50.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
The direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4343.50.
Bearish Scenario
A sustained move under 4343.50 will indicate the presence of sellers. Taking out 4327.50 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger with 4266.00 the next major target.
If the selling pressure continues to increase under 4266.00 then look for the move to extend into the minor bottom at 4263.25. Taking out the intraday low at 4250.00 could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next target the main bottom at 4212.75.
A move through 4212.75 will reaffirm the downtrend with the next major area of interest the support cluster at 4137.50 – 4129.00.
Bullish Scenario
A sustained move over 4343.50 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger a short-covering rally into 4419.50.
Side Notes
If you don’t know how to trade a volatile, two-sided market then stay out. Find something with less volatility.