EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for July 21, 2021
The Euro is edging lower against the U.S. Dollar on Wednesday as worries about surging virus infections drove investors to seek protection in the greenback ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting.
The Euro hit its lowest level since April early Tuesday. According to Reuters, the single-currency might find support if the ECB fails to meet expectations for a dovish tweak to rates guidance at its Thursday meeting. But if that is delivered, it could open the way for further weakness.
Your capital is at risk
At 13:21 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1766, down 0.0016 or -0.13%.
“The implication is the ECB’s monetary policy will now remain ultra-easy for even longer which is a headwind to the Euro,” said Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Kim Mundy.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. Taking out the intraday low at 1.1752 will reaffirm the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a trade through the last main top at 1.1881. That’s highly unlikely, but the Euro is down eight sessions from its last main top which puts it inside the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom.
The minor trend is down. Taking out 1.1824 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.
The first minor range is 1.1824 to 1.1752. Its 50% level or pivot at 1.1788 is potential resistance.
The second minor range is 1.1881 to 1.1752. Its 50% level at 1.1817 is additional resistance.
The short-term range is 1.1975 to 1.1752. Its retracement zone at 1.1864 to 1.1890 is controlling the near-term direction of the EUR/USD.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
The direction of the EUR/USD on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.1782.
Bearish Scenario
A sustained move under 1.1782 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is the intraday low at 1.1752. Taking out this level with increasing selling volume could trigger an acceleration into the March 31 main bottom at 1.1704.
Bullish Scenario
A sustained move over 1.1782 will signal the return of buyers. In this case, it is likely to be short-covering. The first target is the minor pivot at 1.1788. Overtaking this level could create the upside momentum needed to challenge 1.1817, the last potential resistance before the 1.1824 minor top.
Momentum and the minor trend will shift to the upside if buyers can take out 1.1824.