EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for June 3, 2019
The Euro is trading higher against the U.S. Dollar on Monday as the steep plunge in U.S. Treasury yields continues to take its toll on demand for the greenback. The drop in yields is being fueled by speculators betting a slowing economy will force the U.S. Federal Reserve to lower its benchmark interest rate later in the year. Meanwhile, Euro short-sellers are being encouraged to adjust positions due to the increasingly bearish outlook for the U.S. economy.
At 11:13 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1185, up 0.0016 or +0.14%.
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Daily Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1215 will change the main trend to up. A secondary higher bottom has formed at 1.1116. A trade through this bottom will signal a resumption of the downtrend with the next potential target 1.1107.
On the upside, the major level to watch is 1.1185. Not only is this a long-term 50% level and a short-term Fibonacci level, but it’s also a major downtrending angle on the weekly chart. We could see an explosive move to the upside if buyers can take out this level with conviction. (This means if 1.1185 goes bid after the breakout). Further confirmation of the breakout will be the change in trend to up on the daily chart.
On the downside, today’s support is the 50% level or pivot at 1.1161.
Daily Technical Forecast
Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.1185.
Bullish Scenario
A sustained move over 1.1185 will indicate the presence of buyers. The next breakout level is the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1189. Taking out this angle could trigger a surge into 1.1204, followed by 1.1215 to 1.1216.
The 50% level at 1.1216 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into a downtrending Gann angle at 1.1227 and a Fibonacci level at 1.1241.
Bearish Scenario
A sustained move under 1.1185 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is an uptrending Gann angle at 1.1177. If this fails then look for the selling to extend into the short-term pivot at 1.1161. This is the trigger point for an acceleration into the uptrending Gann angle at 1.1142.
Overview
The Euro is at a critical point on the daily and weekly charts. This level is 1.1185. If buyers can take this out with rising volume then look for a potential run into at least 1.1215. This is another trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.