EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for November 30, 2021
The Euro is surging against the U.S. Dollar on Tuesday as traders covered their short positions after Moderna’s CEO said COVID-19 vaccines are unlikely to be as effective against the omicron variant as they have been with other types.
Today’s move looks like a continuation of Friday’s sell-off where omicron jitters fueled the unwinding of short Euro/long U.S. Dollar, long U.S. stock positions. Furthermore, there are some money managers buying the Euro on reduced bets for a faster tapering and earlier rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
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At 13:36 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1370, up 0.0078 or +0.69%.
Due to the uncertainty over the omicron variant, money markets pushed back their expectation of a first, full 25 basis-point rate hike to September 2022 versus July last week, according to Reuters.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1608 will change the main trend to up. A move through 1.1186 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.
The minor trend is also down. A trade through 1.1374 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.
The EUR/USD is trading on the strong side of a long-term Fibonacci level at 1.1291, making it support.
The nearest upside targets are layered at 1.1397, 1.1439 and 1.1493. The major resistance and primary upside target is 1.1547 to 1.1633.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
The direction of the EUR/USD into the close on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.1374.
Bullish Scenario
A sustained move over 1.1374 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside, which could extend the rally into the series of 50% levels at 1.1397 and 1.1439.
Taking out 1.1439 will indicate the buying is getting stronger with the next targets a minor top at 1.1464 and a long-term 50% level at 1.1493.
Bearish Scenario
A sustained move under 1.1374 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the major Fibonacci level at 1.1291.