EUR/CHF Forecast August 14, 2015, Technical Analysis

The EUR/CHF pair fell during the course of the day on Thursday, testing the 1.08 handle. However, we ended up forming a bit of a hammer as we rallied later in the session. With this, we have a very bullish looking candle, and as a result we believe that the market will try to work its way back towards the 1.10 handle. We believe that this was National Bank will continue to work against the value the Swiss franc, as it has recently been outed as doing. It does it in this pair more than anything else, so quite frankly we believe it’s only a matter of time before this pair goes to the 1.10 level, and then eventually higher than that.

We look at the longer-term charts, the fact that we broke above the 1.08 level is in fact a very big deal. We believe that the market will ultimately retrace all of the losses from the Swiss National Bank abandoning its currency peg at the 1.20 level. When that happened, there was a massive move lower, as one would expect. However, we have broken above the last significant resistance on the chart and therefore we feel that a complete “round-trip” should be what happens next. On top of that, the Euro itself is starting to show strength in general, so having said that it makes sense we go much higher as the Swiss franc of course will sell off.

There will be pullbacks in time to time, but quite frankly we feel this is simply going to be a nice buying opportunity and what appears to be a very strong uptrend. We feel that the market will be a relatively steady one to deal with, as this pair does tend to be pretty straightforward. Yes, there are issues in the European Union, but quite frankly things are starting to stabilize on the continent, and that of course will be good for this pair. As long as there aren’t any major financial headlines crossing the wires that shake the world’s markets, this pair should continue to drift higher.