EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis – November 27, 2015 -Forecast
The EUR/GBP added 18 points while both currencies were weak today and US markets are closed for the holiday. The pair is trading at 0.7040. The market’s near-term focus is on the European Central Bank’s policy meeting on Dec. 3. Because the euro has factored in the prospect of the ECB’s additional easing steps next week, the pair could rise if the ECB underwhelms market participants. The ECB has signaled its readiness to expand its bond purchase program to combat weak inflation. The euro has lost 4% against the dollar over the past month. At its meeting next week the ECB will ease policy in some way or another, according to economists polled by Reuters, many of whom say the bank cannot pull back now after signaling its intentions so clearly over the past month.
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The pound edged down against the euro after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney failed to give any indication that interest rates might climb faster than markets expect. “The question in my mind is when the appropriate time for interest rates to increase is, and that is strongly consistent with the strength of the domestic economy,” Carney told the Treasury Select Committee, an influential group of MPs.
The Bank’s monetary policy committee has said that when rates do start to go up, it will remain cautious on the pace of hikes.
“There is less margin for error given the weight of household debt in this country,” Carney said.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
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United States – Thanksgiving Day |
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NZD |
Trade Balance (MoM) (Oct) |
-963M |
-937M |
-1,222M |
|
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NZD |
Trade Balance (YoY) (Oct) |
-3,240M |
-3,370M |
-3,200M |
|
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AUD |
Private New Capital Expenditure |
-9.2% |
-3.0% |
-4.4% |
|||
EUR |
GfK German Consumer Climate |
|
9.2 |
9.4 |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Friday, November 27, 2015
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
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|
United States – Day following Thanksgiving – Early close at 13:30 |
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JPY |
Household Spending (MoM) (Oct) |
|
1.1% |
-1.3% |
|
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JPY |
Household Spending (YoY) (Oct) |
|
0.1% |
-0.4% |
|
||
JPY |
Jobs/applications ratio (Oct) |
|
1.24 |
1.24 |
|
||
JPY |
National Core CPI (YoY) (Oct) |
|
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
||
JPY |
Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Nov) |
|
-0.1% |
-0.2% |
|
||
GBP |
Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Nov) |
|
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
||
GBP |
Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Nov) |
|
4.2% |
3.9% |
|
||
GBP |
Business Investment (QoQ) (Q3) |
|
1.5% |
1.6% |
|
||
GBP |
GDP (YoY) (Q3) |
|
2.3% |
2.3% |
|
||
GBP |
GDP (QoQ) (Q3) |
|
0.5% |
0.5% |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Sek 5bn 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange
Nov 27 11:03 Sweden 1.5% Nov 2023 bond exchange, 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange
Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs
Nov 27 N/A Spain Announces details of 03 Dec
Nov 30 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Dec 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt auction
Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec
Dec 03 10:30 Spain Auctions
Dec 03 10:50 France Auctions OATs
Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction
Dec 04 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction