EUR/USD forecast for the week of November 9, 2015, Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair down during the course of the week, as we continue to see the Euro fall. Having said that, there are a couple things that we are paying attention to here at FX Empire about this chart. The first one of course is the obvious break down below the ascending trend line that we have been paying so much attention to. We had formed a significant hammer from the previous week based upon the trend line, and the fact that we have fallen below that is bearish for a couple of different reasons. The first one of course is the fact that we broke down below the bottom of a hammer, which shows a reemergence of negativity in this market, and means that the sellers have taken control again.
Another negative aspect of this of course is the trend line break, and the breaking below of the 1.08 level. That being the case, the market is closing towards the bottom of the range for the week, and that of course is negative as well. This was predicated mainly upon the jobs number on Friday being much stronger than anticipated, and with that it makes a lot of sense that people will begin to suspect that the Federal Reserve is closer to raising interest rates than fun just a couple of weeks ago. On top of that, the European Central Bank obviously has rattled the markets a bit as they suggested further quantitative easing could be the way going forward.
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The fact that we broke down below the bottom of an ascending triangle is also very troubling, and this suggests that we have recently seen a shift in the thought process of traders. Rallies at this point in time should be selling opportunities, as soon as they show signs of exhaustion and resistance. The market has spoken its desires this past week, and as a result we feel that negativity will continue to be the way going forward. At this point in time, we don’t really have a scenario in which we start buying.
