Gold Price Forecast – Head & Shoulder Top Confirmed
The post-Fed bounce terminated last Tuesday at $1543.30. A head and shoulder topping pattern emerged, and a breakdown below the pattern neckline at $1490 would establish a minimum price objective of $1410.
COT UPDATE: Commercial hedgers added 26,746 shorts last week bringing their total net short position to a record setting -345,145 contracts. Generally, I like to see shorts cut in half before I start looking for the next 6-month low. To shave off 172,000 contracts will take several weeks, and we may get a false bottom or two as gold works down these positions.
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BACKTEST POSSIBLE: The June breakout in gold above $1400 confirmed a new bull market. However, the record number of outstanding shorts is concerning and could trigger a backtest of the $1360 – $1380 breakout level in Q4 of 2019. If established, that may become one of the last great buying opportunities.
AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit https://goldpredict.com/