Gold Price Prediction – Prices Edge Higher in Overbought Territory
Gold prices edged higher on Thursday as the dollar edged higher and yields in the US moved lower. Gold prices continue to benefit from safety demand. This follows the IMF reducing its forecast for global GDP. The agency now sees a global contraction of -4.9% this year versus its forecast of -3% contraction back in April. US GDP for the Q1 came in at -5% year over year. This was offset by a stronger than expected durable goods orders. Jobless claims came out slightly worse than expected.
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Technical Analysis
Gold prices edge higher and continue to consolidate after breaking out to fresh 7-year highs earlier in the week. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,720, and then the 50-day moving average at 1,730. Resistance is seen near the June highs at 1,779 and then the August 2012 highs at 1,791. Short term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal in overbought territory. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 88, above the overbought trigger level of 80 which could foreshadow a correction. Medium-term momentum remains positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.
Jobless Claims Rise More than Expected
US Jobless claims increased by 1.48 million last week according to the Labor Department. Expectations were for claims to rise by 1.35 million claims. While the weekly numbers remained high and were worse than estimates for the second straight week, the total of those receiving benefits continued to fall. Continuing claims fell by 767,000 to 19.52 million.