Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 14, 2014 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
Natural Gas gained 11 points to trade at 3.870 with no real news or direction trading continues to support the 3.87 price level. Natural gas demands in is expected to decrease by 9 percent in 2014 compared to 2013. The first half of 2014 saw a significant decrease of 18 percent in gas demand, compared with the same period in 2013. The dramatic decline in gas consumption in the first half of the year is mainly the result of the very mild weather. Natural gas futures gained in New York for the first time in three days on forecasts for cooler-than-normal weather that would spur demand for the heating fuel.
Your capital is at risk
Temperatures may be below average on the East Coast from Oct. 20 through Oct. 24, according to MDA Weather Services in Gaithersburg, Maryland. The low in New York on Oct. 21 may be 39 degrees Fahrenheit (4 Celsius), 9 less than usual, data from AccuWeather Inc. show. Gas stockpiles were 11 percent below the five-year average in the week ended Oct. 3, the biggest deficit for the time of year since at least 2005.
The other main factors for the drop in gas demand were the slow economic recovery, low coal costs in direct competition with gas, and the growing share of electricity generation from renewables which has become more desirable due to environmental concerns.
Spanish energy firm Gas Natural SDG SA said Monday that its planned purchase of Chile’s Compania General de Electricidad will have no immediate effect on its financial targets for next year.
Speaking on a conference call, Gas Natural executives said they would review their 2015 strategic plan at a future date. The 2014 worldwide working gas capacity grew annually by five percent with Iran’s contribution from the only underground gas storage in the Middle East, according to Cedigaz’s statement released last week. The worldwide storage capacity stands at 399 bcm according to the recent data.
The commissioning of the Shourijeh storage in Iran supports Iran’s aim to decrease the amount of gas imports from Turkmenistan. The Shourijeh facility, located 25 kilometers southeast of Sarakhs in northwestern Iran which can store up to 4.8 bcm of gas, raised the Iranian capacity to slightly more than 6 bcm.
Asia followed the Middle East with a 15 percent increase with the new facilities coming online in China. China aims to increase gas in a total energy mix from 4 percent to 10 percent by 2020 and to develop a 90 bcm storage capacity.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
WEEKLY
Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)
Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
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Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
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Holiday |
Japan – Health-Sports Day |
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Holiday |
Canada – Thanksgiving Day |
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CNY |
Exports (YoY) (Sep) |
15.3% |
11.8% |
9.4% |
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CNY |
Imports (YoY) (Sep) |
7.0% |
-2.7% |
-2.4% |
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CNY |
Trade Balance (Sep) |
31.00B |
41.00B |
49.83B |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
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Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
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AUD |
RBA Asst Gov. Debelle |
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CNY |
New Loans |
|
750B |
703B |
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EUR |
French CPI |
|
-0.3% |
0.4% |
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EUR |
French HICP |
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-0.3% |
0.5% |
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EUR |
Spanish CPI |
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0.2% |
0.2% |
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GBP |
CPI (MoM) (Sep) |
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0.2% |
0.4% |
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GBP |
CPI (YoY) (Sep) |
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1.4% |
1.5% |
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GBP |
PPI Input (MoM) (Sep) |
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-0.4% |
-0.6% |
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EUR |
Italian CPI (MoM) (Sep) |
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-0.3% |
-0.3% |
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EUR |
Industrial Production |
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-1.6% |
1.0% |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country Auction
Oct 14 08:30 Spain 6 & 12M T-bill auction
Oct 14 09:30 Belgium 3 & 12M T-bill auction (Jan & Oct 2015)
Oct 15 09:03 Sweden Bond auction
Oct 15 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Sep 2016 Schatz auction
Oct 16 08:30 Spain Bono/Obligacion auction
Oct 16 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2024 I/L Gilt
Oct 16 15:00 US Announces details of 30Y TIPS auction on Oct 23