Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Market Sitting on 50 Day EMA

Natural gas markets have gone back and forth during the trading session on Thursday to show signs of following the 50 day EMA yet again. The market of course is bearish due to the fact that the temperatures in the United States are starting to rise again. After all, this is a market that is very cyclical, and if demand for heating drops in the northern hemisphere, makes sense that price drops here as well. The 50 day EMA is an indicator that a lot of people will follow in this market, but even if we break down below there, I think the market then goes down to the $2.56 level, where the 200 day EMA currently sits.

NATGAS Video 26.02.21

On the other hand, the market turns around to show signs of strength, I would be willing to sell it at the first signs of exhaustion. I believe that the $3.00 level above is a significant psychological barrier, and I do think that a lot of people would be willing to jump into this market and short it at that point. I do think that longer-term, we continue to go much lower, perhaps reaching down towards the $2.30 level which was where we had bounced from at the bottom of the most recent move.

I have no interest in buying this market, we are almost certainly going to be oversupplied rather soon, and with taxes coming out from underneath the ice, it will flood the market with supply yet again. The market certainly will react accordingly, so I think it is only a matter of time before we continue to go much lower.

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