Natural Gas Price Futures (NG) Technical Analysis – Seasonal Temps July 16-19 Helping to Cap Gains
Natural gas futures are edging higher early Wednesday after touching their lowest level since March 24 the previous session. Yesterday, sellers picked up where they left off last week after the overnight weather forecasts called for relief from the extremely hot weather that has plagued the country for nearly a month.
At 01:16 GMT, August natural gas futures are trading $5.632, up $0.109 or +1.97%. On Tuesday, the United States Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG) settled at $18.65, down $0.66 or -3.42%.
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The major American and European weather models continued to show strong head through the first half of the month, according to NatGasWeather, though some easing in temperatures may be on the horizon.
NatGasWeather is predicting hot temperatures through July 15-16 then a “neutral or seasonal” pattern July 16-19.
Traders seem to be focusing on the July 16-19 time period. This could make or break the market this week.
Short-Term Outlook
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $5.325 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through $6.833 will change the main trend to up.
The main range is $3.528 to $9.645. The market is currently trading on the weak side of its retracement zone at $5.865 – $6.587, making it resistance.
The minor range is $6.833 to $5.325. Its pivot at $6.079 is additional resistance.
The market is currently hovering just above a former bottom at $5.385. If the selling pressure continues and this level is taken out with conviction, then look for the start of a steep drop into the March 9 main bottom at $4.610.
On the upside, overcoming the long-term Fibonacci level at $5.865 will be the first sign of a bottom. A sustained move over the minor pivot at $6.079 will indicate the short-covering is getting stronger. This could lead to a test of the long-term 50% level at $6.587.
We’re not likely to get too excited about the upside unless the market closes over $6.587.