Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Drop and Fall for the Week
Natural gas prices dropped for the second straight trading session down nearly 6% and closing the week in the red down 3%. The weather is expected to be colder than normal throughout the mid-West over the next 6-10 days but then turning milder throughout most of the West Coast and the mid-West. There are no significant tropical disturbances in the Atlantic that are treating to become a tropical cyclone over the next 48-hours.
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Technical Analysis
Natural gas prices tumbled 6% after falling 7.5% on Thursday. Prices pushed through support now resistance near the 10-day moving average at 5.48. Short-term momentum reversed and turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. This comes after prices were signaled as overbought. Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).
Consumption Rose
U.S. natural gas consumption increases week over week, led primarily by an increase in the residential/commercial sector. Total U.S. natural gas demand rose by 4.8% (4.1 Bcf/d) week over week, according to data from the EIA. Average weekly consumption of natural gas rose in all end-use sectors. The largest increase in demand was in the residential and commercial sector, which rose 24.3% as the country transitions into the winter heating season. Though temperatures are falling, the onset of the heating season has been delayed relative to normal weather.