Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Drop Through Trendline Support on Warm Weather Forecast
Natural gas prices continued to trend lower on Friday. The weather is expected to be much colder than normal in the western part of the US and much warmer than normal on the east coast which should net reduce heating demand. Hurricane Eta is making its way through Latin America and is now expected to reverse and head toward the Gulf of Mexico. The trajectory placing the storm on a course to hit Florida, and it is not expected to impact any natural gas infrastructure.
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Technical Analysis
Natural gas prices moved lower and closed below support near an upward sloping trend line for a second consecutive session. Resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 3.20. The 10-day moving average is crossed below the 50-day moving average which means that a short-term downtrend is in place. Medium-term momentum is negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence index recently generated a crossover sell signal. The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.
Demand Rose in Latest Week
Demand rises, driven by LNG exports and heating demand in buildings. Total U.S. consumption of natural gas rose by 1.4% compared with the previous report week, according to data from the EIA Natural gas consumed for power generation declined by 12.2% week over week. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption increased by 20.4% amid cooler-than-normal temperatures on the East Coast. Industrial sector consumption increased by 1.4% week over week.