Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Form Outside Day Pointing to Lower Prices

Natural gas prices whipsawed harshly rising higher early and then tumbling late to close the session near the lows of the day. The outside day reversal is a negative sign for prices and likely points to continued lower levels as well as additional volatility. LNG exports declined week over week a sign of softening demand.

 

Technicals

Natural gas prices formed an outside day lower. This is a higher high, a lower low and a lower close. Prices sliced back through support which is now short term resistance near the 10-day moving average near 2.59. Additional support is seen near the November lows at 2.50. Resistance is now seen near the November highs at 2.90. Short term momentum has reversed and turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell. Prices are oversold as the fast stochastic is printing a reading of 5, below the oversold trigger level of 20 which could foreshadow a correction. Medium-term momentum negative as the MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.

LNG Exports Decline

Th EIA reports that US LNG exports decrease week over week. Twelve liquefied natural gas vessels with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 43 Bcf departed the United States between November 14 and November 20, according to the EIA. The net withdrawal from storage totaled 94 Bcf for the week ending November 15, compared with the five-year average net withdrawal of 32 Bcf and last year’s net withdrawal of 109 Bcf during the same week.