Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rise but Settle Off Their Highs
Natural gas prices were up slightly on Thursday following the inventory report from the Energy Information Administration. The weather is expected to be warmer than normal during the next two weeks, on the west coast and cooler than normal on the east coast according to NOAA. There are no tropical cyclones expected to form in the Atlantic during the next 48-hours.
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Technical Analysis
Natural gas prices consolidated, attempting to move higher and closing up on the session. Resistance is seen near the May highs at 3.2. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 3.07. Short-term momentum whipsawed and moved higher as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term momentum is flat but turning positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) is poised to generate a crossover buy signal. This occurs when the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).
Inventories Rose in Line with Expectations
Natural gas in storage was 2,411 Bcf as of Friday, June 4, 2021, according to the EIA. This represents a net increase of 98 Bcf from the previous week. Expectations were for a 98 Bcf build. Stocks were 383 Bcf less than last year at this time and 55 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,466 Bcf. At 2,411 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.