Price of Gold – Fundamental Forecast, April 24, 2017
June Comex Gold futures are expected to open sharply lower after investors dumped safe-haven assets early Monday in reaction to exit polls in France. Traders were also reacting to a jump in the Euro to a 5 ½ month high. According to reports, the first round of France’s presidential election went to centrist former economy minister Emmanuel Macron with far-right candidate Marine Le Pen coming in a close second.
According to an exit poll released by Ipsos, Mr. Macron gathered 23.7% of the votes with Ms. Le Pen garnering 21.7% of the vote.
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The Euro spiked higher and the Japanese Yen plunged on the news. Other safe haven assets like U.S. Treasurys also fell sharply, sending yields higher. The rise in yields is expected to boost the U.S. Dollar which could put further pressure on dollar-denominated gold.
The money leaving gold is expected to find its way into the U.S. equity markets which are expected to gap higher on the opening.
Despite calls for a lower opening, the trend will remain up unless sellers can take out $1248.20. The first area of support is $1273.00 to $1267.00. Since there are still concerns over North Korea, buyers may step in on a test of this level. However, if $1267.00 is taken out with heavy selling volume then we could see another $20 to the downside.
Overcoming $1273.00 will be an indication that buyers are coming in to support the market.
Because of the strong possibility of a two-sided trade, investors should continue to look for volatility.
With the French election out of the way, traders will now shift their focus on new threats from North Korea, the Trump Administration’s tax reform announcement on Wednesday and the possibility of a government shutdown before the week-end.