S&P 500 Futures Forecast December 24, 2012, Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 futures plunged during the session on Friday as fears about the fiscal cliff continue to plague the markets while politicians in Washington DC simply cannot come to any type of agreement. However, you can see that we bounced fairly hard off of the 1400 level, and managed to form a massive hammer for the day. It is now obvious to us that there is a ton of support below, and especially at the 1400 level.

Looking at this chart, it easy to see that the 1440 level is massive resistance, and our next hurdle to overcome in order to continue the bullish market. After seeing the kind of bounce that we solve during the Friday session, is very difficult to start shorting this market. It just simply seems far too resilient for that at that time, and as a result we are long of it already as we solve the bounce during the day bring money in hand over fist.

The biggest problem with today though is the fact that it is Christmas Eve. We will have an abbreviated session, as well as very send markets and this always has the potential to produce fireworks and not always the good kind. After all, there are few things more frustrating than being on the wrong side of a thin market as its moving against you an erratic and violent manner.

It isn’t until we managed to break the bottom of the hammer from the Friday session that we would even consider selling. However, if we get above the 1440 level we think that this market can continue much higher, even though it will more than likely see a bit of resistance at the 1460 level. Above there, we could really get moving and see this market take off.

If we do get that move higher, we think that this market will continue to run farther and farther as the Federal Reserve continues to pump markets full of capital. As for selling, we believe that even a breakdown of the hammer from the Friday session would more than likely only see a short-term negative bias appear.