Technical Outlook – USDCHF, EURCHF, GBPCHF and NZDCHF

USDCHF

USDCHF’s aggression from June lows, as marked by ascending trend-channel formation, confronted the seven month old descending trend-line resistance during last week; however, the said channel resistance pulled back the pair by negating the breakout. Form the current level, channel support, near 0.9680-75, can become an immediate rest, breaking which the 200-day SMA, at present near 0.9540, is likely buffer for the pair’s downward trajectory towards 0.9440 and 0.9330-25 lower levels. Meanwhile, the said descending trend-line, near 0.9830, seems nearby resistance that can extend the pair’s up-move towards channel resistance, currently at 0.9950. Should the pair strengthens further above 0.9950, the 1.0100 – 1.0120 region, including March highs, is a tough nut to break before the pair could target its January levels above 1.0200 mark.

EURCHF

Having breached the ascending trend-line resistance, connecting highs marked in April, June and July, the EURCHF managed to surpass its February highs and close above 200-day SMA for the first time since January 2014; however, pair couldn’t sustain the break and seems pulling back towards 1.0830 and the February high of 1.0800. Should it continue declining below 1.0800, the resistance-turned-support line, presently near 1.0725, becomes an important support to determine the pair’s near-term moves, breaking which 1.0670 and the 1.0560-50 are likely consecutive levels to witness during the pair’s downturn. On the upside, 1.0920 and the recent highs of 1.0960 can become immediate resistances during the pair’s reversal while a sustained up-move beyond 1.0960, also surpassing the 1.1000 round figure mark, is likely targeting the 100% FE of the pair’s late-January February up-move, near 1.1250, before targeting the 1.1500 area.

GBPCHF

Three month old ascending trend-channel, coupled with short-term ascending trend-line support, keep favoring the GBPCHF up-move towards January highs of 1.5530-35 area; however, the said channel resistance could continue restricting the pair’s near-term advance. Should the pair manages to break 1.5535 on a closing basis, it could trigger the up-move towards 61.8% FE of its January-March up-move, near 1.5850. Moreover, an extended stretch beyond 1.5850 enables the pair to test 1.6000 psychological magnet. Alternatively, the ascending trend-line support, near 1.5170, and the 1.5040 are likely immediate supports to restrict its near-term decline, breaking which the 1.4800 – 1.4785 region, including the channel support, followed by the 200-day SMA & 76.4% Fibo of January decline, near 1.4700 – 1.4690, become important levels to limit further downside of the pair.

NZDCHF

NZDCHF’s bounce from 0.6200 area could gain limited fuel as the 0.6500 – 0.6510 horizontal mark restricted the pair’s advance, pulling it back towards 50-day SMA, 0.6400 area and the 0.6360-50 multiple support area. Should the pair continue declining below 0.6450, the 0.6285-80 can become an intermediate support before the pair re-test 0.6200 mark. Moreover, a daily close below 0.6200 mark can quickly test the 0.6050 mark prior to targeting 0.5900 support-zone. Should pair gathers enough of momentum to surpass 0.6510 on a closing basis, it can quickly rally to 0.6600 mark prior to targeting 0.6770-80 horizontal resistance area while an extended march beyond 0.6780 can provide considerable strength to the pair towards testing 0.6950-60 resistance zone.

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