The Birth of a New Safe Haven Currency
The ongoing Russian invasion and the risk off mode associated with it, have given birth to a new safe haven currency – the Australian Dollar (and the New Zealand Dollar as well).
One thing is that the Australian Dollar is a commodity currency and we all know that commodities are currently flying through the roof. Another thing is that Australia is very far from any potential conflict. And in this case, we can see a real pattern. The Euro is much weaker than the GBP, the German stock exchange is weaker than the American one and well, the Polish currency and stock exchange are pretty much being wrecked.
Your capital is at risk
Quite surprisingly, AUD is even stronger than CHF – the real benchmark for safe havens! So, in today’s analysis we’re taking a look at AUDCHF.
Last week, the pair managed to create a major, long-term buy signal. The buy signal, comes from the fact that the price broke the upper line of the flag formation (blue). The flag was a big bearish correction of a post-covid recovery.
The new week also starts on the front foot. The price is currently breaking the 23.6% Fibonacci, which actually opens the way towards the top from February 2021. As for the supports, we have plenty of them. First of all, the upper line of the flag, then we have one on the 0.667 and then, the red mid-term up trendline, which is supporting the price in 2022.
With all that, the sentiment on AUDCHF is definitely positive and a bearish reversal would be a rather huge surprise.