US Dollar Index Forecast November 19, 2015, Technical Analysis

The US Dollar Index initially fell during the course of the day on Wednesday, testing the 99.25 level for support. We ended up finding enough support in that area to turn the market around and bounce significantly higher, which ended up printing a hammer. The hammer of course is a very bullish sign, and with that I believe that eventually the US dollar will reach towards the 100 level, and possibly even go higher than there. In fact, I feel that it’s only a matter of time before we do in fact break out to the upside.

Pullbacks at this point in time should be thought of as an exercise in momentum building, because of course 100 is about as big of a large, round, psychologically significant number as you can find in this market. There will be a lot of interest in the market there, and with that I believe that you cannot sell this market currently.

The 98.50 level below should also be thought of as supportive, because it was a level that we bounced off of. It also was previously resistive back during the months of July and August, so market memory of course came into play. Down the technical analysis though, you have to keep in mind that the US dollar will continue to be favored as the jobs number recently suggested that the US economy is starting to pick up. Once we have seen that, it’s a bit of a “one-way trade” given enough time, mainly because the rest of the world is struggling at the moment.

Given enough time, I believe that the next target will be the 102 level, but it will take some time in general. This is a market that is a bit overextended at the moment, and with this I think you can be very patient about trying to go long. Once we do get over the 100 level though, we should see the momentum pick up again, but you can still expect pullbacks from time to time. Perseverance is what will pay off in this market.