USD/CAD Exchange Rate Prediction – The Dollar Consolidates Ahead of Employment Data
The dollar consolidated in an uptrend against tghe Loonie following a more robust than expected jobless claims. Powell and Yellen were both on the hill Wednesday and Tuesday. Yields were higher and the curve flattened.
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Technical analysis
The dollar broke out and consolidated closing above resistance which is now support at 1.28. Target resistance is seen near the September highs at 1.29. The 10-day moving average cross above the 50-day moving average, which means that a short-term uptrend is almost in place. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. The exchange rate is overbought with the fast stochastic printing a reading of 92, above the overbought trigger level of 80. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index is generated a crossover buy signal. This scenario occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).
Jobs Data Impresses
Initial jobless claims for the week ended November 27 totaled 222,000, less than the 240,000 expected. That was higher than the 194,000 from the previous week, but that total, the lowest since 1969, was revised even further down from the initial 199,000 reported. Continuing claims, which are insurance claims for longer than one week, fell by another 107,000 and are now below 2 million for the first time since the early days of the pandemic.