USD/JPY Price Forecast – US dollar pulls back against Japanese yen

The US dollar pulled back a bit during the trading session on Thursday, as the ¥109 level has been massive as resistance yet again, and even though we have had a pullback, it wouldn’t surprise me if we retested it. I think we are going to continue to bounce around in this 100 pips range, with the ¥108 level underneath. Once we break down below there though, the market could drop to ¥107, and then possibly as low as ¥105.

USD/JPY Video 18.01.19

Above, the ¥110 level above is massive resistance, and I think it’s going to be very difficult to break above there. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is just above there as well, so I think it’s going to be resistive as well. With that being said, I think anytime that we rally, there will be sellers willing to push it back down. Beyond that, I think it’s very interesting to notice the correlation between this pair and the risk appetite of markets in general. There is high correlation between this pair and the S&P 500, as both are highly sensitive to risk appetite around the world. That being the case, I think it’s only a matter of time before we get more trouble on the horizon as the US/China trade talks continue to stall a bit, and then of course we are in the middle of earnings season which will have a major effect on the US dollar itself. That being the case, we have had a nice grind higher but we are still decidedly bearish.