USD/JPY Price Forecast – US dollar slips a bit on Thursday

The US dollar has slipped a bit during the trading session on Thursday, reaching towards ¥113 level. The US dollar got beat up a bit during both Wednesday and Thursday due to the speech by Jerome Powell which I think was the kickoff to an overreaction. There is a major support underneath though, especially at the uptrend line and the ¥112 level. Beyond that, the 200 day EMA sits just below there. I think that buyers will eventually show up, so as we pull back I start to look at this pair for value.

USD/JPY Video 30.11.18

However, if we were to break down below the 200 day exponential moving average, then I think that could unwind this pair rather drastically, with the initial level being ¥110 below, and then the ¥108 level after that. Remember that this market is highly sensitive to risk appetite so pay attention to that as well. I think that the ¥114.50 level above is the beginning of significant resistance that extends to the ¥115 level. Because of that, I think that it is going to take quite a bit of momentum building to finally break out to the upside. If we did do that, that could send this market towards the ¥118 level, perhaps even ¥120 after that. That would obviously be a major change in momentum. The ¥114.50 level has caused a lot of resistance several times in the past, so this is a major area we are tinkering around with.