USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis December 31, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD added 12pts to trade at 0.9964 as the US dollar gained on the last full trading day of the year. Strong eco data from the US, showing an increase in Pending Home Sales and Chicago PMI both printing above expectations. The Canadian dollar traded in the narrowest range this year as U.S. lawmakers prepared to meet before a deadline to avoid spending cuts and tax increases that may push the nation’s biggest trading partner into recession.

The currency has gained 2.6 percent this year versus its U.S. counterpart, erasing last year’s 2.3 percent loss. U.S. President Barack Obama summoned congressional leaders to the White House for a 3 p.m. meeting as lawmakers give little sign they intend to act together on a budget plan.

Movement in CAD will continue to be driven by external factors in the absence of domestic data ahead of next Friday’s employment release

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Markets will have a shortened day on Monday December 31st and most are closed on Tuesday January 1, 2013. Our analysis will be published as markets close on Monday and there will be no analysis on Tuesday. I want to wish all of my readers a happy and healthy new year. I hope you continue reading our analysis next year. 

Economic Data December 28, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date		Currency			Event	Actual		Forecast		Previous
Dec. 28		EUR			French Consumer Spending (MoM)	0.2%		0.1%		-0.1%
		EUR			French GDP (QoQ)	0.1%		0.2%		0.2%
		SEK			Swedish Retail Sales (MoM)	0.30%		0.20%		-1.80%
		EUR			Italian 10-Year BTP Auction	4.48%				4.45%
		USD			Chicago PMI	51.6		51.0		50.4
		USD			Pending Home Sales (MoM)	1.7%		1.0%		5.2%

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Date	Time	Country	Event	Forecast	Previous
Jan. 01	01:00	CNY	Chinese Manufacturing PMI		50.60
Jan. 02	00:00	EUR	German CPI (MoM)	0.7%	-0.1%
	00:00	EUR	German CPI (YoY)	1.9%	1.9%
	08:00	CHF	KOF Leading Indicators	1.38	1.50