USD/CAD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, October 6-10 2014, Forecast
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The USD/CAD broke above 1.12 hitting a new high at 1.1249 after the release of the jobs report in the US. The Canadian economy is posting moderate growth averaging around 2½% y/y. Consumer spending remains reasonably buoyant. Supported by heavy discounting, motor vehicle sales in August set a new record for the month. Housing activity is also quite robust, with low mortgage rates maintaining affordability in the face of high home prices. However, consumer confidence and buying intentions have softened in recent months amid growing pessimism over labour market conditions. Monthly employment growth through August has averaged just 10,400, less than half the growth in the labour force population. Combined with limited pent-up demand (car sales and homeownership rates are at record levels), consumers are expected to be relatively cautious spenders in the year ahead.
Your capital is at risk
The Canadian dollar fell to its lowest point in six months against the U.S. dollar after the nation posted an unexpected trade deficit in August, supporting the Bank of Canada’s cautious outlook on the economy.
The Bank of Canada has held its benchmark interest rate at 1 percent for four years and maintained last month it is as likely to lower borrowing costs as raise them while it waits for signs of a sustained export recovery that can power economic growth.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Historical: From 2011 to present
Highest: 1.1270 CAD on Oct 04, 2014
Average: 1.0042 CAD over this period
Lowest: 0.9407 CAD on Jul 26, 2011
Events You Should Be Monitoring This Week:
CAD Ivey PMI
NZD NZIER Business Confidence
JPY Monetary Policy Statement
AUD Cash Rate
AUD RBA Rate Statement
JPY BOJ Press Conference
GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
CAD Building Permits m/m
USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
AUD Employment Change
AUD Unemployment Rate
GBP Asset Purchase Facility
GBP Official Bank Rate
GBP MPC Rate Statement
USD Unemployment Claims
EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
CAD Employment Change
CAD Unemployment Rate
Upcoming Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Oct 07 06:00 Swiss Announces details of optional bond auction on Oct 08
Oct 07 09:00 Norway Bond auction
Oct 07 09:15 Austria RAGB auction
Oct 07 9:30 UK Auctions 3.5% 2045 Gilt
Oct 07 15:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 10
Oct 07 17:00 US 3Y Note auction
Oct 08 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Oct 2019 Bobl auction
Oct 08 09:30 Swiss Bond auction (for decision)
Oct 08 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP
Oct 08 17:00 US 10Y Note auction
Oct 09 09:03 Sweden I/L bond auction
Oct 09 17:00 US 30Y bond auction
Oct 10 09:10 Italy BOT auction