USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis October 23, 2014 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendation:
The USD/JPY gave up 16 points as the US dollar weakened and the JPY rebounded after the release of positive trade figures this morning. The Japanese trade deficit came in at Y958bn in September, which was just higher than the level it reached in August. Experts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected the trade shortfall to come in at Y780bn.
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The trade data contained some good news, however. Japan’s exports rose 6.9 per cent in September, year on year, which was beyond economists’ expectations and also provides a boost to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s campaign to revive the nation’s manufacturing base. But imports rose by almost as much, gaining 6.2 per cent year on year.
The trade data showed that exports grew 6.9% in September from a year earlier, while imports rose 6.2%. Exports of parts for the new iPhones helped boost the export figure, while a large increase in natural gas imports added a volatile element to the import figure, ministry data showed.
The overall impact on the nation’s trade balance was to push up the deficit by 1.6% to ¥958.3 billion ($8.96 billion) from a year earlier, the first increase in three months. That compared with a median forecast for a ¥768 billion deficit in a survey of economists by The Wall Street Journal and the Nikkei.
The ongoing trade decline comes amid continued offshoring by Japanese multinationals—trend analysts say reduces the beneficial impact of a weaker yen on boosting export volumes.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
|
JPY |
Adjusted Trade Balance |
-1.07T |
-0.91T |
-0.91T |
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|
JPY |
Exports (YoY) (Aug) |
6.9% |
6.8% |
-1.3% |
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|
JPY |
Trade Balance (Sep) |
-958B |
-777B |
-949B |
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|
|
AUD |
CPI (QoQ) (Q3) |
0.5% |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
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|
AUD |
CPI (YoY) (Q3) |
2.3% |
2.3% |
3.0% |
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|
AUD |
Trimmed Mean CPI |
0.4% |
0.5% |
0.8% |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
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AUD |
RBA Governor Stevens |
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NZD |
CPI (QoQ) (Q2) |
|
0.5% |
0.3% |
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CNY |
HSBC Mfg. PMI |
|
50.2 |
50.2 |
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|
EUR |
German Mfg PMI |
|
49.5 |
49.9 |
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EUR |
German Services PMI |
|
55.0 |
55.7 |
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EUR |
Manufacturing PMI |
|
49.9 |
50.3 |
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EUR |
Services PMI (Sep) |
|
52.0 |
52.4 |
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GBP |
BBA Mortgage |
|
41.5K |
41.6K |
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|
GBP |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
|
-0.2% |
0.2% |
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GBP |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
|
-0.1% |
0.4% |
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|
GBP |
CBI Industrial Trends |
|
-4 |
-4 |
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USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
282K |
264K |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country Auction
Oct 23 11:03 Sweden Sek 1bn 0.5% Jun 2017 I/L bond
Oct 23 17:00 US Announces 2/5/7Y Note & 2Y FRN auctions on Oct 28/29/30
Oct 23 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPei/CTZ auctions on Oct 28
Oct 23 19:00 US USD 7bn 30Y TIPS auction
Oct 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 29
Oct 27 12:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn new 12M Bubill (Oct 2015) auction
Oct 27 18:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu auctions on Oct 30
Oct 27 12:10 Italy BTPei/CTZ auctions
Oct 28 12:10 Italy BOT auction
Oct 28 19:00 US 2Y Note auction
Oct 29 12:03 Sweden Bond auction
Oct 29 12:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Aug 2024 Bund auction
Oct 29 17:30 US 2Y FRN auction
Oct 29 19:00 US 5Y Note auction
Oct 30 12:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions
Oct 30 19:00 US 7Y Note auction