Weekly Technical Outlook: EUR/USD;Market Forecasts for February 1st – February 5th
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Technical Analysis
Daily bias in EUR/USD remains bearish with 1.0955 resistances intact. A deeper decline is still expected for the pair as long as resistances holds the area. The price action stays below resistances so far at this point and such a decline is viewed as a correction. Thus, we’d expect resistance to hold the area and the pair remains bearish with a break of 1.0877, indicating a near term bearish reversal.
Outlook to continue with the downside bias, the price action signals a two bar reversal bearish movement rejection at resistance area closing below a break of trend line.
Stochastic oscillator on the other hand is currently at 40.0 levels and the pair closed below the rejection of the trend line. There is a clear indication of trend reversal shifting the momentum.
Current development suggest that a medium term downside is expected for a further low and focus shall be at 1.0772. A break here should make lower lows with 1.0713 and later to 1.0668 levels. However, a break of resistance level at 1.0955 will dampen our bearish view on the pair and look to an upward bias. Outlook remains bearish for the week.
Economic
- Markit Manufacturing PMI, ECB President Draghi’s Speech, Unemployment Rate
- Non-monetary policy’s ECB meeting, Markit Services PMI, European Commission Releases Economic Growth Forecasts
- Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (MoM), API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
- ADP Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Initial Jobless Claims, Trade Balance,
- Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Area of Interest
- Strong resistance at 1.0955 area and closed below resistance levels.
- Bearish two bar reversal strongly closing below the break of trend line.
- Price action closed below trend line and oscillator below 40.0 levels indicating shift in momentum.
- At Flip Area on Daily time frame resistance levels.
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